Belém was the first significant Portuguese settlement in South America. When the first migrants arrived in 1616 , they did what many colonisers did on arrival in the New World and sought to name their town after a place back home. In this case Belém was and is an area of Lisbon whence many of the colonists may have come from. But Belém is also a  translation of the word Bethlehem and for many of those colonists here was a miracle place where a new beginning could be made.

Belém 2025 has few traces left of these early days beyond some colonial architecture. A population of 1.3M, swelled today by tens of thousands of international delegates, most of whom are also hoping for a miracle to emerge in tackling the scourge of global heating. The location was chosen by the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, to bring home to the international community the reality of climate change for the global south, and particularly the vital role played by Amazonia in determining the future trajectory of climate, not just in Brazil but on a global scale. Not that any of the delegates need to be reminded, with temperatures in the mid 30s and humidity hovering around 100% outside the venue, and not much better inside, COP30 will be remembered as a bit of a cauldron.

As the first week comes to a close, the world leaders have had their 10 minutes of glory on the UN platform. In each case, including Ireland, carefully constructed speeches extol the supposed progress they have been making in tackling the climate emergency. Seldom do they admit to their failures to meet their pledges, or their domestic and international obligations. But having departed, it is left to officials to start the serious negotiations. In many cases a tentative draft will have been prepared with a number of options contained in square brackets. These options will range from the radical to the preservation of the status quo and negotiators will endeavour to reduce them down to one for the final document. Multiple parallel negotiating strands will be occurring and the ‘men in suits’ will be scurrying from room to room, seldom having much interaction with the great mass of participants running the side events and networking in the various areas of this huge complex.

This being the 14^th COP I have attended, it is following predictable lines. Countries have not yet clearly declared their ‘red lines’. For many countries, officials are timid about taking radical decisions until they have clearance from their masters back home. So it is only with the arrival of the Ministers next week that the directions of the COP will be clearer. However there are some grounds for limited optimism. I have always been of the view that a COP in the global south is more effective than one in a developed country. The realities of climate breakdown are for some countries of the global south existential, especially low lying island states and countries existing on meagre and unreliable rainfall. They know what disastrous extreme events mean for their safety and economic development in the short term, such as we have seen in Jamaica and the Philippines in recent weeks. By contrast, many developed countries, including Ireland, are happy to throw money at addressing issues both domestically and even internationally, but unwilling to take the hard decisions necessary to reduce their own emissions in the short term. We are reminded at meetings here in Belem that 50% of global greenhouse emissions come from 10% of people in the richest countries. This includes countries such as Ireland.

This being early days, the omens for a successful COP are not clear. Certainly more so than any of the three recent COPs the Presidency has taken more initiatives in advance to secure the objective of implementation of the pledges made at Paris. But already at a plenary session this morning the dissenting voices of Russia and Saudi Arabia were notable. Whether the COP will produce a final statement at all is still up for negotiation.

One striking feature of the attendance so far is the new activity being generated by faith groups, in particular the Christian churches. After decades of neglect the Holy See is now an active participant, in part an acknowledgement that this year is also the tenth anniversary of Pope Francis’s influential encyclical Laudato Si’. The presence of up to a dozen cardinals may influence the hard bitten negotiators, especially in the predominantly Catholic countries of South America and Africa. In that sense the Irish branch of Laudato Si’ is playing a strong role, led by the global CEO of the Laudato Si’ Movement, Lorna Gold. Perhaps an ethical and moral set of arguments may succeed where scientific arguments have failed.

So far the absence of the world’s greatest polluter in historical terms has hardly featured in discussions. Countries are getting on with the work, and a ‘chilling effect’ of President Trump’s bullying tactics, which led to the failure of negotiations on marine emissions a short few weeks ago, is not readily apparent. But next week will tell the tale!

Banner image: courtesy Prof John Sweeney

---

Professor Sweeney contributed to the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. He has published over 100 scientific papers and authored/ edited/co-authored 4 texts on various aspects of climatology and climate change in Ireland. He has served as President of the Irish Meteorological Society, the Geographical Society of Ireland and An Taisce, the National Trust for Ireland. He has been Editor, Treasurer, Secretary of several national associations as well as being the Irish representative on a number of European academic bodies. He has been involved in a number of international research projects and has led a number of nationally funded research projects examining various aspects of climate change in Ireland