The Midweek Deadlock

It is almost a foregone conclusion that by the middle of the second week, negotiations at COP reach a deadlock. Concessions are not on their agenda pending the arrival of their political masters. Over the past two days the government ministers have arrived to lead their national delegations and the negotiations have been extended through the evening often to a late hour as decisions begin to take shape.

Today, the Brazilian President Lula returned unexpectedly to provide extra impetus for a COP that is supposed to represent a move away from aspirations and vague commitments to one of implementation. Implementation of the pledges made at Paris 10 years ago is the number one priority. Countries’ performance record on these, and examination of recently renewed Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are intended to be the main foci. But the required submission of new, and more stringent, NDCs has been disappointing. Even after the deadline they continue to trickle in. An early estimation is that even if all NDCs were perfectly executed, the world would still be on course to warm by 2.6deg within the next 75 years.

The rather gloomy atmosphere inside was replicated outside the venue today where a major thunderstorm and rain downpour drowned out the speakers inside and caused minor flooding on the approach roads for a time. But in this equatorial location (1oS) things dry up fairly quickly. 

The Brazilian Presidency have been doing their best with a series of recommendations to anchor the discussions with a number of ‘roadmaps’ dealing with guidelines for reducing the production and use of fossil fuels. Over 80 countries have now signed up for this.

But while 25 EU countries are supportive, opposition from Italy and Poland have blocked an overall EU policy position being established. In any event the petrostates, especially Saudi Arabia and Russia, may well scupper the idea at a later stage. Similarly the adoption of a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, based on its nuclear counterpart, seems unlikely to be agreed.Many NGOs and faith groups support this proposal, including the Irish bishops conference who have been very active at this COP. Its time may yet well come. Roadmaps without clear schedules and milestones however are not the answer.

Minister Daragh O’Brien met with around 15 of the Irish civil society representatives yesterday. He was rightly effusive about the international finance provided by Ireland for adaptation and loss and damage. This is particularly useful to poor countries since it is provided as a grant and not as a loan to further encumber them with debt. This time next year the Irish Minister will be presiding over the negotiating position for the EU as Ireland assumes the Presidency of the EU Council of Ministers. Some delegates outside the Irish ‘bubble’ have however been asking about potential reputational damage for the country as expected Ireland is breaching its own legal emission limits. Some others ask is it really true that Ireland spends €4 billion each year on subsidising fossil fuels?

This is a very colourful COP. Indigenous peoples are both inside and outside in their full regalia. Indeed it was one of the reasons Lula brought the COP to Amazonia, to bring home the reality of climate change impacts on people without a voice at the negotiations. One demonstration inside attracted the attention of the UN police responsible for security in the building. But a peaceful protest is perfectly legitimate to remind negotiators who their constituency includes and why the voices of those not at the table need to be respected.

There is a much more tolerant outlook on demonstrations here than was evident in Dubai or Sharm el Sheikh and plenty of noise from young climate justice activists. Indeed there is almost a parallel COP for young activists in various locations downtown. Networking is taking place on a grand scale and consolidating their power initially based on ethical and moral outrage, but also increasingly aware of the levers to pull for a fairer world. The next few days will reveal whether the status quo continues or whether Brazil can pull off a meaningful  agreement that has so far eluded hosts for 29 years.

Banner images courtesy of John Sweeney

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Emeritus Professor John Sweeney has been a member of the Geography Department at Maynooth University since 1978. He contributed to the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. He has published over 100 scientific papers and authored/ edited/co-authored 4 texts on various aspects of climatology and climate change in Ireland. He has served as President of the Irish Meteorological Society, the Geographical Society of Ireland and An Taisce, the National Trust for Ireland. He has been Editor, Treasurer, Secretary of several national associations as well as being the Irish representative on a number of European academic bodies. He has been involved in a number of international research projects and has led a number of nationally funded research projects examining various aspects of climate change in Ireland