Banner image: Global day of action COP29 Photo: UN Climate Change - Habib Samadov CC

In many respects holding COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan echoes the issues that arose in last year’s COP28 in Dubai. Once again the COP is held in a major oil and gas producing country where the prospect of getting an agreement to phase out fossil fuels to tackle climate change is challenging, to say the least.

Baku is Europe’s oldest oil city with a history of oil production dating back to 1837. By the beginning of the 20th century, half of the oil sold in international markets came from Baku, and today oil and gas account for 95% of Azerbaijani export revenues. The wealth that has been accrued is evident in the splendid architecture and layout of the city, widely described as “The Paris of the East”. Some of the streets are among the most expensive shopping streets in the world and modern glass skyscrapers of various shapes and sizes adorn the city. As the President of the Republic said at the opening of COP29 “Oil and gas are a 'gift of God'”.  Naturally, this was not a statement that went down well with most of the 60,000 registered attendees, but an indication of what difficulties the 198 signatory countries to the Paris Agreement face over the coming week in reaching any form of meaningful accord.

Apart from these issues, the conference is beset by wider geopolitical problems. The recent election of populist and far right politicians in several countries, the tensions provoked by the Ukraine war, and the stated intention of President-elect Trump to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement all conspire to make the negotiating environment very difficult.

There is also the absence of senior politicians from the US, France, Germany, and indeed Ireland, as well as an inexperienced EU Commission, all of which create a vacuum of leadership. This at a time when the world has had its first annual encounter with the 1.5^oC warming level, and climate has demonstrated the catastrophic consequences that can be unleashed in many parts of the world, including Ireland.

The main focus of the COP this year has been to renew an annual fund to assist developing countries cope with the impacts of climate change predominantly caused by developed countries (such as Ireland). Of course the occurrence of sudden extreme events are easy to comprehend in terms of fatal floods, heatwaves and storms. But slow onset events such as droughts are also part of the story.

The original fund finally reached a sum of $100 billion in 2022, some 13 years after the pledges were first made. It is important to emphasise that this is not charity. It is rather reparations for losses and damage caused by the 10% of the world’s richest people (such as Irish people) who are responsible for 50% of current global emissions. It is also an investment in global sustainability for the next generation and indeed and in minimising the geopolitical stability of enforced population displacement.

The ‘ask’ from the developing world is now 5 times greater at $1 trillion. It seems an astronomical figure, but some scientific estimates suggest that fair recompense should be 5 times greater even than this. It can be achieved, perhaps with imaginative new contribution sources, such as small financial transaction levies. For comparison purposes, the revenue from soft drinks globally amounts to about $0.5 trillion!

It is poignant to hear the stories from the Small Island Development States. You can’t ask them to reduce their emissions, since essentially they don’t have any. All you can do to stave off their demise in some cases is offer money for adapting to present and future climate extreme events.

Ireland has a good record in this area and indeed enjoys a favourable reputation as an intermediary between developed and developing countries, not least due to its long involvement in development issues and its post colonial shared experience with many of them. As part of a UN negotiating partnership, Minister Ryan and his counterpart from Costa Rica are centrally involved in trying to gain agreement on adaptation finance, and ensuring that it is focussed on the most vulnerable countries. But who benefits and who contributes is the crunch issue.

Ireland is also deeply involved in the negotiations on implementing the Loss and Damage fund established in COP27. This is rendered even more complicated by the structural arrangements of the COP whereby blocks of countries are represented by nominated spokesperson, rather like the EU (currently Hungary, but that’s another story!). But these blocks date back over 30 years to the original UN agreements. So, for example, the G77 group of what was then developing countries included China and the major oil producers, as well as the Small Island Developing States. The world 30 years on is a very different place, with very different agendas to be reconciled under the UN’s unanimity requirement.

A recent document signed by Mary Robinson and previous UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon, among others, has questioned whether the COP is today fit for purpose. It clearly has evolved into something different from that intended in 1992. Over 1,700 coal, oil and gas lobbyists have been granted access to Cop29. They quietly go about their business but are everywhere on the conference floor. For non-governmental environmental organisations their ability to counter well-funded oil and gas lobbyists are very limited.

Calls for a reformed COP system are justified, but the big question is what alternatives are there? A free for all is not an option. The famous Tragedy of the Commons essay by Garret Hardin some 60 years ago reminded us that an unregulated commons brings disaster to all. Let’s hope that multilateral cooperation survives for now and that week 2 brings some rays of hope.

Professor John Sweeney