High stakes: Ireland will fail its climate commitments without radical action

The Joint report of the Fiscal Advisory Council and Climate Change Advisory Council on the likely fines Ireland faces for its decades of inaction in greenhouse gas emission reductions should not come as a surprise. Organisations such as An Taisce have been warning that this has been coming for many years. What is surprising is the scale of the fines being projected, up to €26 billion, a sum equivalent to the annual tax payers’ spend on the entire Health Service or double the annual budget of the Department of Education. This money will be given away to buy emission credits from those countries that have got their house in order. These other countries will be more than willing to sell their surpluses to Ireland and will gladly accept this windfall.  

It is often more politically palatable for governments to procrastinate on making hard choices during the electoral cycle, and we saw this result in some of our highest emitting sectors having the lowest emission reduction targets. The failure to make these choices is now coming home to roost. Both Advisory Councils emphasise that investments in electrifying transport, strengthening the national grid and tackling the disproportionate emissions coming from Irish agriculture can save the taxpayer a large chunk of these potential fines. An Taisce has long emphasised the benefits of clean air, reduced water pollution and warm homes which would result from such actions.  

By mid-April the Minister is required to place a revised carbon budget for the period 2031-35 before the Dáil. No doubt the delay in forming a government will be used as an excuse to stall this, as it has similarly stalled the Climate Action Plan 2025 and indeed many of the actions in Climate Action Plan 2024. An Taisce calls for rapid agreement on the carbon budgets and radical action in the Climate Action Plan 2025 to urgently deliver emission reductions.  

The constant mention of 51% reduction by 2030 as the target is also misplaced. Apart from EU requirements, Irish emissions are legally constrained by the two carbon budgets 2021-25 and 2026-2030. Meeting these binding carbon budgets is what matters, but the EPA project this will not happen in the absence of much more decisive and urgent Government action. The forthcoming 2024 data from the EPA may well indicate a modest reduction, but nothing on the scale required to meet the requirements of the Climate Act. Long before the EU fines kick in, Ireland will find itself in breach of its own national legislation and is, even at present, facing challenges in this respect in the High Court. 

A start in facing reality might be to accurately report the changes in annual emissions. Spinning’ a reduction of 6.8% in 2023 over 2022, as occurs widely, including in the Programme for Government, does not help. This reduction was largely due to an increase in imported electricity and the exclusion of certain emissions from land use. The actual reduction in terms of the sectors we are obliged to report to Brussels and the UNFCCC was 3.8%. Similarly, looking for a way of minimising methane emissions by altering the way it’s calculated belies the reality that international agreements such as Paris would have to be changed with the agreement of 195 countries. This is not going to happen in the time scale left as Ireland enters ‘carbon debt’ territory with other countries.  

Urgent radical action to tackle the emergency is now required and An Taisce calls on the government to come forth with a realistic reduction plan, especially for agriculture, energy and transport, that will avoid burdening the taxpayer with impossible choices in big spending areas such as Health or Education in a few short years from now. 

Terri Morrissey, Board Member and Chair of An Taisce Climate Committee said: 

The time has come for tough talking and true leadership. The time to act is now.